Tropical Cyclone Activity

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 251707
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 25 Sep 2020 17:40:27 GMT

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251711
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lowell, located more than 1000 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual
development will be possible through the middle of next week and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Lowell (EP2/EP172020)
    ...LACKLUSTER LOWELL LUMBERING WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Sep 25 the center of Lowell was located near 21.6, -129.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Lowell

  • Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 20
    Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2020 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 251438 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 500 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2020 ...LACKLUSTER LOWELL LUMBERING WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 129.2W ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 129.2 West. Lowell is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is anticipated into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected. Lowell will likely become a post-tropical remnant low later today or early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 20
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 251438 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 129.2W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..165NE 75SE 75SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 129.2W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.3N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.1N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.1N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.1N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 147.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 129.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 20
    Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2020 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251441 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 500 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2020 Lowell has produced almost no deep convection within 100 n mi of its center for more than 12 hours. As noted in the previous advisory, although there is still a small patch of convection well to east-northeast, it is pushing the boundaries of what can reasonably be considered as organized deep convection. If convection does not redevelop closer to Lowell's center soon, it could become post-tropical as soon as this afternoon. Earlier ASCAT-C data showed a wide area of winds around 35 kt, so the intensity is held at that value for this advisory. There were no noteworthy changes made to the NHC forecast. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north of Lowell is expected to steer the cyclone just south of due west for the next several days. A break in the ridge could allow it to turn northward near day 5. A combination of cool ocean temperatures and westerly shear should prevent the redevelopment of organized convection, and Lowell will gradually spin down as a result. The NHC forecast conservatively shows a day 5 point, but Lowell could also dissipate by then. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered track and intensity guidance envelopes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 21.6N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 21.5N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 21.3N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 21.2N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 21.1N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z 21.1N 141.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 21.1N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 21.5N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 251438 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lowell Graphics
    Tropical Storm Lowell 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2020 14:41:44 GMT

    Tropical Storm Lowell 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2020 15:24:51 GMT ]]>


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